Rice
Rice futures remain in an uptrend, supported by expectations for a significantly smaller U.S. crop and concerns about food insecurity due to conflict and war around the world. July futures have added over $2 to the market since mid-April, and are now testing resistance at $13. New-crop September futures are testing resistance at $13.33. The crop is in everywhere but California, which is behind their usual pace at only 60% planted. 79% of the Arkansas crop is rated good to excellent, up from 74% a week ago. The upside could be limited, however, as export commitments are down 15% from last year and running behind the pace needed to hit the current USDA projection. 

Soybeans
Soybean futures have been on a bit of a roller coaster the past couple of weeks. China’s commitment to purchase $17 billion of U.S. agricultural goods per year for 3 years was initially supportive. However, there was no mention specifically of soybeans. The previous agreement to purchase 25 MMT of soybeans for the current and next marketing years remains in effect. Export sales remain behind the pace needed to meet USDA projections, which is certainly a concern for prices. Domestic crush is running ahead of projections, though, providing some support. Arkansas farmers are mostly finished seeding the crop, with USDA reporting 91% of acres are planted — well ahead of the average pace of 79%. Across the U.S., 79% of the crop is planted, compared with a five-year average of 68%.

Corn
Corn futures have declined five of the past six trading sessions and recently moved back below the 100-day moving average as improving geopolitical sentiment and falling energy prices pressured commodity markets. Optimism surrounding a possible peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushed crude oil prices sharply lower and encouraged funds to reduce long positions. Weather across much of the Corn Belt remains mostly favorable, with warm and dry conditions supporting crop development in central and northern areas, while excessive rainfall across the southern U.S. and eastern Corn Belt could lead to additional prevented planting acres or a shift to soybeans in states like Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The U.S. corn crop is now estimated at 86% planted. From a technical standpoint, December corn futures dipped below trendline support near $4.80 this week, with the next major support level near $4.70. A break below that level could accelerate downside pressure in the market.

Cotton
Cotton futures have moved lower recently as U.S. planting progress continues steadily with few major weather concerns. Additional pressure has come from weakness in outside markets, including crude oil, grains and gold, while traders continue monitoring developments involving Iran and upcoming cotton reports. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report showed 53% of the U.S. cotton crop has been planted, up from 41% the previous week and matching the five-year average. Texas was 42% planted compared to its five-year average of 45%, Georgia reached 58% planted versus a 60% average, Arkansas was 77% planted compared to its average of 78%, and Mississippi reached 73%, slightly ahead of normal. Technically, December cotton futures continue finding support near 78.05 and 77.20 cents per pound, while resistance levels remain near 80.60 and 81.25 cents.

Wheat
Wheat futures remain under heavy selling pressure, with Chicago and Kansas City wheat contracts posting losses for the fifth consecutive trading session while Minneapolis spring wheat futures have also weakened. Winter wheat development continues ahead of normal, with 78% of the crop now headed compared to the five-year average of 70%, but crop conditions declined again this week. Only 26% of the crop is rated good to excellent, while 44% is rated poor to very poor, both slightly worse than the previous report. Technically, the market has struggled since July Chicago wheat futures posted a major key reversal lower on May 14, signaling what many traders viewed as a possible market top. Although global wheat fundamentals have become more supportive in recent months due to weather concerns and tighter supplies, futures have shifted sharply lower over the past several sessions as traders continue liquidating long positions.

Hogs
Hog futures remain locked in a downward trend. Domestic demand has not increased despite the holiday weekend that usually kicks off the summer barbeque season. Tighter hog supplies are being partially offset by heavier slaughter weights, so production isn’t down as much as projected. The composite pork cutout value is at a two-month low.

Cattle
Cattle futures have been under pressure this week after Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report showed a higher-than-expected May 1 feedlot inventory. The June contract has support at $247, and resistance at $255. Beef cutout values have improved this week, which could drive packer demand and improve cash prices.