Rice
Rice futures are holding their own after the spring selloff, having recovered over $1/cwt after confirming a bottom in May. That low is $12.53 for new crop September, and futures are now challenging resistance at $13.80. Unfortunately, some of the market strength is attributable to the rocky start of this year’s crop. Farmers across the mid-south, particularly in Northeast Arkansas, were inundated with rain and flooding that led to late or prevented planting. The condition of the crop also reflects this, with 68% of the Arkansas crop rated good to excellent, and 32% rated fair to poor. A recent uptick in export sales has also been beneficial. Iraq, usually a top 10 customer of U.S. rice, has been a major buyer recently after new financing restrictions delayed purchasing. Iraq now is contracted to purchase 220,000 metric tons of U.S. rice in 2025.

Corn
Improved crop conditions put added pressure on corn futures this week. According to USDA’s latest Crop Progress report, 71% of the U.S. corn crop is now rated good to excellent — up slightly from last week and continuing a modest upward trend. Iowa, the top corn-producing state, is leading the way with 85% of its crop in top-tier condition. Arkansas remains steady with 68% rated good to excellent, unchanged from the previous report. Despite bearish fundamentals, short-term technicals are signaling oversold conditions, prompting some buying interest early this week. December corn futures traded down to revisit the early June low during Tuesday’s session but reversed course, closing nearly 6 cents above the low. From a technical standpoint, the 50-day moving average near $4.48 remains a key level to watch for short-term direction.

Soybeans
Soybean futures have seen limited movement in recent days as traders await developments from ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions. While some optimistic language has emerged, no formal agreements have been announced — leaving the market in a holding pattern. National soybean crop conditions improved slightly this week, with 68% rated good to excellent, up 1 percentage point. Iowa continues to report strong conditions at 80%, while Ohio trails behind at just 53%. Conditions in Arkansas are slightly below the national average at 60% of the crop rated good to excellent. Soybean planting progress remains ahead of schedule with 90% of the U.S. crop planted as of Sunday, well above the historical average. From a technical perspective, November soybeans remain rangebound. Prices briefly pushed above the 100-day moving average near $10.32½ but failed to hold. On the downside, the 50-day moving average around $10.28¾ continues to provide support.

Wheat
The wheat market is looking ahead to Thursday’s WASDE report, which will provide updated global production estimates just as harvest begins to ramp up across the U.S. This week’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat condition improving, with 54% of the crop now rated good to excellent — up two points from last week. In Arkansas, however, harvest pace is lagging due to persistent wet weather. Only 19% of the crop has been harvested so far, compared to 31% last year and a five-year average of 25%. On the charts, July Kansas City wheat futures bounced this week after testing late-May support near $5.25. If that level fails, the next downside target sits near the low close of $5.08. Resistance is building near the 50-day moving average at $5.45½, which remains the near-term bullish objective.
 
Cotton
As of June 8, Arkansas cotton farmers had seeded 93% of intended acres. With the late planting period for crop insurance now closed, it is unlikely the remaining intended acres will be planted. There is 3% of the crop in Arkansas now squaring, and 69% is in good to excellent condition. Nationwide, 76% of the crop is in the ground, with Texas currently at 72%. Exports remain slow as China buys cotton from Brazil and other origins. There is currently no news regarding a trade deal with China, or if cotton would benefit from any deal once it is created. July futures are chopping along mostly sideways with support at 64.5 cents. A close below that level would signal a retest of the contract low of 62 cents. December is consolidating in a narrow band between resistance at 69 cents and support at 67.5 cents. 

Cattle 
Gains in cattle futures accelerated last week as futures gapped higher and set new record highs in several contracts. Most-active August climbed as high as $220.05 this week before running out of steam. The rally is driven by tight cattle supplies and skyrocketing cash prices. After holiday buying is complete, demand usually wanes through late summer, and prices could correct as a result.