Corn
September and December corn futures remain under pressure as private analysts continue to release yield projections well above USDA’s current outlook. Last week, Linn & Associates pegged the 2025 national average yield at 185 bushels per acre, followed this week by StoneX with an even higher estimate of 188 bushels per acre. Both are notably above USDA’s July forecast of 181 bushels per acre. Adding to the bearish tone, the latest crop condition rating held at 73 percent good to excellent, second only to 2016 over the past decade, a year when final yields far exceeded trend. From a technical standpoint, December corn futures have moved closer to the key $4.00 level, which may offer some psychological support. A decisive break below $4.00 would shift focus toward the 2024 contract low near $3.90 as the next bearish target.

Soybeans
November soybean futures have struggled to hold gains, with prices rejected at the $10.00 mark in a broadly disappointing session. Market pressure continues to stem from favorable pod-fill weather, rising yield and production expectations, and a lack of resolution in the trade standoff with top soybean buyer China. Reports this week indicated that Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke with President Donald Trump, with Trump expressing optimism that a trade agreement could be reached soon. Without such a deal, however, U.S. new-crop soybean sales are likely to remain under pressure. On the technicals, the near-term downside target is trendline support near $9.85. A break below that level would bring the early April lows in the mid-$9.70s into play. On the upside, any rebound remains limited by resistance near $10.10, the upper boundary of the current downtrend channel, which would likely attract selling if tested.

Wheat
New-crop wheat futures across all three exchanges moved lower this week, with Minneapolis contracts narrowly avoiding a new contract low. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report showed the U.S. winter wheat harvest at 86 percent complete as of Sunday, matching both last year’s pace and the five-year average for early August. In technical trade, September Kansas City wheat finally broke through month-long support near $5.015 on Tuesday, pushing prices toward $5.00. This drop marked the lowest close for the most-active KC contract since September 2020, underscoring the market’s ongoing bearish bias. 

Rice
Rice futures continue to trend sharply lower, testing support below $12.20. The next downside objective for bears is the $11.91 low on the monthly continuation chart, which would be a new 5-year low on a front month basis. The rice crop both in Arkansas and the U.S. are 75% headed. Harvest is 6% complete, with only Louisiana and Texas currently harvesting. Now, 74% of the Arkansas crop is rated good to excellent, and harvest should begin soon.  The question is, what happens to the rice when it is harvested. Rough rice stocks in all positions totaled 69.7 million cwt on June 30, up 15% from the previous year. Milled rice stocks totaled 6.09 million cwt, up 26% from a year ago. Many believe the 2025 USDA production estimate is on the high side, but with the current stocks situation, the upside is likely to remain limited.

Cotton
December cotton is testing support just above 66 cents, and a close below that level could signal a retest of the April low of 64.24 cents. Slow export sales amid ample South American supplies, lower crude oil and stock markets, and general economic worries amid revised employment numbers are all a factor. 55% of the cotton crop nationwide is in good to excellent condition — an unusually high percentage thanks to more ample rainfall in Texas this year. In Arkansas, 71% of the crop is in good to excellent condition. 55% of the crop is setting bolls, but with only 5% of bolls opening, harvest hasn’t begun.

Hogs
Hog futures have seen some weakness over tariff concerns and weaker wholesale pork prices. However, news that the U.S. and Mexico have extended the current trade deal for another 90 days has reduced the immediate threat of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork. October futures are trading in a mostly sideways pattern between support at $86.02 and resistance at $91.98. 

Cattle
Cattle futures have posted wild daily swings in recent days. Last week, futures soared in reaction to the monthly Cattle on Feed report, which showed another 2% decline in the total feedlot inventory. Placements were down 8% from 2024, totaling 1.44 million head. Marketings were down 4% from a year ago, which was the lowest June marketings total since the reporting series began in 1996.