Rice
USDA released their Prospective Plantings report on March 31. Arkansas rice acreage is expected to total 1,461,000 acres, up 1% from 2024. 1,320,000 acres are expected to be seeded to long grain, with the remaining 141,000 acres dedicated to medium and short grain. This marks the highest rice acreage since 2016, reflecting lower prices for other commodities and recent strong field yields for rice.  U.S. acreage is expected to decline 1%, reflecting small declines in production in every other rice producing state. The supply/demand balance sheet remains bearish, with ending stocks of 47.0 million cwt- the highest since 2014/2015. Record-high imports of long-grain aromatic rice from Thailand and India are adding pressure to the domestic market. Large stocks in China and India could keep world rice prices depressed. May futures remain in a mostly sideways pattern between support at $13 and resistance at $14.

Corn
The market had long anticipated a shift from soybean acres to corn acres, but with little bullish momentum, bears continue to dominate. The USDA projects the highest corn acreage total in over a decade. However, since this estimate aligns with traders’ and analysts’ expectations, prices have remained steady rather than declining further. New crop September futures tested the 20-day moving average at $4.43 but failed to break through. A move above this level could drive momentum toward the 100-day moving average of $4.48. Meanwhile, corn planting in the south is progressing well, with Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas all exceeding their historical averages for late March. However, heavy rainfall — exceeding eight to ten inches in some areas — may slow planting and necessitate replanting in localized flood zones.

Soybeans
Despite acreage shifting toward corn, soybean prices saw a slight increase this week. New crop November futures have recently climbed above the 100-day moving average of $10.25 and are now approaching the next key resistance level at $10.40. The real story in soybeans lies in how this acreage shift impacts the USDA’s February Outlook balance sheet. Given current demand projections, maintaining sufficient U.S. domestic soybean stocks in 2026 will depend heavily on strong yields. This underscores the critical role that weather conditions will play throughout the 2025 growing season.

Wheat
Monday’s USDA report projected a decline in wheat acreage, which — if realized — would mark the second-lowest level since 1919, excluding 2020. Despite larger-than-expected March 1 wheat stocks, traders are focusing on the implications of historically low acreage, particularly given the uncertain condition of winter wheat crops in both the U.S. and Russia. In Chicago, new crop July wheat futures are approaching the 20-day moving average of $5.66, with no significant resistance in sight. The convergence of the 20- and 100-day moving averages near $5.70 could serve as a key bullish target if the market finds support following the USDA report.

Cotton
An unsurprising Prospective Planting estimate for cotton showed farmers plan a sharp decline in cotton acres. Nationally, farmers are reporting planting intentions of 9,867,000 acres- that is 13% smaller than 2024, while Arkansas farmers are expected to reduce planted cotton acreage by 12%. Arkansas acreage is pegged at 580,000 acres. Cotton prices remain below the cost of production, and cotton farmers are facing the third year in a row of financial losses. Futures have reacted positively to the report, with prices breaking above technical resistance. May has an upside objective of 69 cents and December is testing the waters near 71 cents.

Cattle
Cattle futures continue to trend higher, overcoming the occasional market setback set new highs. The fundamental picture remains bullish, with the March Cattle on Feed Report showing February placements down 18% from 2024 at 1.55 million head, and total disappearance was up 7% from last year. The total on-feed inventory for March 1 was down 2% from last year. The June contract has support at the recent spike low of $199.60 and needs to close above the recent high of $207.30 to suggest further gains are possible.

Hogs
Hog futures are chopping along with wide daily swings but in a mostly sideways pattern. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is providing support. The March 1 sow herd declined year-over-year for the fourth time in five years, to a nine year low 5.98 million head. December-February farrowings were only 98.7% of the 2024 and were the lowest for the quarter in 11 years.