Rice
Rice farmers in Arkansas hurriedly worked to get as much rice out of the field as possible ahead of the arrival of the Tropical Depression Gordon. USDA says that, as of Sept. 2, Arkansas farmers had harvested 20 percent of the 1.391 million acres of rice planted this year, and Mississippi rice farmers had harvested 49 percent of their 150,000 planted acres. The current forecasted yield of 7,500 pounds/acre in Arkansas could be adjusted downward if high winds and rain result in lodging in fields across eastern Arkansas.

The announcement that the U.S. and Mexico intend to sign a trade agreement by Nov. 30 and that Canada has re-entered the discussions should be good news for rice farmers, as Mexico is our number one market and Canada is an important market too.

November rice futures are trending higher in a channel with support around $10.60 and resistance at $11. Additional support is found at the contract low of $10.13, and tough resistance at $11.82 if futures were to break out of the trading channel in either direction.

Cotton
The cotton farmers weren’t looking forward to a visit from Tropical Depression Gordon, either. With bolls opening on over 50 percent of the 480,000 planted acres, heavy rains and winds have real potential to negatively impact the quality of the cotton crop in the state. Texas continues to face the possibility of high abandonment, with 53 percent of their 7.4 million planted acres in poor to very poor condition. USDA is estimating only 4.3 million of those acres will be harvested.

Last week, despite ongoing trade tensions, China purchased U.S. cotton for both 2018 and 2019 marketing year delivery. An additional round of tariffs to be imposed by the end of this week, however, could impact exports going forward. Farmers can now begin signing up for Market Facilitation Program payments of $0.06/lb. of 50 percent of their 2018 production. Cotton futures are trending sideways with support at the recent low of 80.60 cents are resistance at 84.25 cents.

Soybeans
The upside for soybean prices continues to be severely limited by trade concerns. While the announcement of an agreement with Mexico was positive, U.S. threats to impose tariffs on another $200 billion worth of goods from China this week sparked yet another round of selling. Argentina has begun shipping soy oil to China for the first time in three years, and could start shipping meal soon.

U.S. harvest will begin soon, and USDA says farmers will harvest 4.585 billion bushels on 88.9 million acres thanks to an average yield of 51.6 bushels/acre, up 2.5 bushels/ac from 2017. Soybean farmers can now begin the signup process for Market Facilitation Program payments of $1.65/bushels on 50 percent of 2018 production. November continues to hold support at the contract low of $8.26 ¼, but just barely. 

Corn
Corn harvest will begin in earnest across the country soon as 22 percent of the crop is mature, double the five-year average of 11 percent. The crop is expected to be a bit smaller than last year, but still a big one at 14.586 billion bushels. Futures have been impacted by harvest pressure and basis has weakened, as well. However, strong demand for ethanol, feed and export use continue to provide some support, giving the market a bit of a boost this week. December found support last week at $3.55 ¼, and has additional support at the contract low of $3.50 ¼.

Livestock
Live cattle futures are chopping along in a mostly sideways trend. Improving demand for beef is a positive for prices. Average market weights are down six pounds from a year ago, which indicates marketings are current and there isn’t a backlog of cattle in feedlots waiting to come to market. Export sales are also strong, up 18 percent from last year’s pace. Feeder futures are showing some strength, and a close above $152.35 for the October contract could signal a retest of contract high levels.

October hogs, on the other hand, are chopping along sideways above support at the contract low of $47.82, and futures are trading at a premium to cash prices. The good news is, lower prices and pork’s extreme discount to beef has spurred demand. Exports have picked up and total commitments are up 6.9 percent from last year’s total at this time. Hog farmers can now begin the signup process for Market Facilitation Program payments of $8.00/head on 50 percent of 2018 production.