Declines in milk and turkey prices lead drop in cost of traditional meal

LITTLE ROCK — For the second year in a row it will cost families less to prepare the classic Thanksgiving meal, due largely to significant declines in the average cost of frozen turkey and a gallon of milk. According to Arkansas Farm Bureau’s 31st annual survey, it will cost $44.84 for a family of 10, or $4.48 per person, to enjoy the feast. Last year’s average was $45.25 and this year’s price is $1.39 lower than 2014.

The statewide average is based on responses from members of the Farm Bureau Women’s Committee and other volunteers who surveyed food prices at nine grocery stores and supermarkets across the state. They were asked to report the “best in-store price” of 12 items included in the meal. They are allowed to take advantage of advertised specials, excluding discount coupons and purchase requirements.

Arkansas Farm Bureau President Randy Veach says the fact consumers continue to enjoy the holiday meal for less than $5 a person, on average, is a result of the efficiency of our food production system and continuing lower fuel and transportation costs.

“Despite the fact many Arkansas farmers had to again overcome the effects of flooding in the spring and just before harvest, because of their reliance on the latest research and technological advances, they are able to hold down their cost of production,” Veach said.

“We also continue to benefit from lower oil and fuel prices which translates into more stable food prices for all consumers. America is blessed with an abundant food supply and, as we do each Thanksgiving, many families and charitable organizations will share the meal with those who are not as fortunate. That is truly reason to give thanks.”

Arkansas food prices continue to remain more affordable than elsewhere. American Farm Bureau’s national survey of price trends across the country revealed an average of $49.87.

Though unscientific, the survey is intended to be a snapshot of actual prices across Arkansas and the nation. The survey period was Oct.28 - Nov. 8. The shopping list has remained unchanged since 1986 to allow consistent price comparisons.

Travis Justice, chief economist for Arkansas Farm Bureau, attributes the drop in price to further reductions in the cost of the signature items in the meal.

“Generally, among the items surveyed, the fresh food items averaged steady with year-ago levels; while processed food items showed slight, but consistent increases, Justice explained.”

“Despite higher prices on several food items - namely sweet potatoes and bread products - lower turkey, milk, and egg prices combined to keep the holiday meal items just under last year.

“Turkey prices were down eight percent, reflecting this year’s increased level of turkey production and domestic supplies. At the same time, higher milk production across the U.S. and lower exports for the year have forced domestic prices lower.”

The survey reflected that, as the average cost of a gallon of whole milk dropped 83 cents to $3.22. At the same time, the average price of a 16-pound young tom turkey is $16.12 ($1.01 per pound), compared to $17.40 last year. American Farm Bureau’s national survey reported an average of $22.74 or $1.42 per pound.

Also contributing to the lower price for the meal were drops in price for a pound of fresh carrots, a bunch of celery and the combined average price of miscellaneous items included in the meal such as coffee, sugar, eggs, butter and flour which dropped 37-cents.

Items that saw price increases include cubed stuffing, a 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix, 12-count package of brown and serve rolls, a 16-ounce package of frozen green peas, and a 12-ounce package of cranberries.

NOTE: The survey is conducted by members of the Arkansas Farm Bureau State Women’s Committee. The women are urged to report the best in-store price, noting advertised specials, but disregarding promotional coupons and purchase requirements. The results are unscientific, but are intended to reflect actual price trends across the state. The survey period was Oct. 28 – Nov. 8.

The price of a 16-pound frozen turkey dropped from $17.40 in 2015 to an average of $16.12 or $1.01/lb.

The average price for 3-pounds of sweet potatoes increased to $3.47 or 1.16/lb., up from .90/lb. in 2015.

The average cost of a gallon of whole milk dropped to $3.22, down from $4.05 in 2015.

Arkansas Farm Bureau is a nonprofit, private advocacy organization of more than 190,000 families throughout the state working to improve farm and rural life.

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For more information contact:

Steve Eddington
(501) 228-1383
PO Box 31, Little Rock 72203

or

Ken Moore
(501) 228-1512
PO Box 31, Little Rock 72203